festinger-when-prophecy-fails-1956

Summary

This is a direct observation from the field showing that when a cult's doomsday prediction flopped, the believers largely doubled down rather than abandoning the idea. It matters because it challenges the intuitive assumption that a failed prediction should erode a person's conviction, and it gives the system a well-grounded reference point for modeling how strong beliefs can persist even in the face of clear disconfirming evidence.