bayes-probability-kinematics-not-unique
IN premise — summaries/2026/08/24/wiki-Bayesian_inference-chunk-1.md
Created 2026-08-25T02:58:42+00:00
Bayesian updating is not the only rational updating rule; probability kinematics (e.g., Jeffrey's rule) also avoids Dutch-book incoherence, as noted by Hacking and van Fraassen.
Summary
There is more than one mathematically defensible way to revise probabilities when new evidence arrives; you do not have to rely solely on standard Bayesian conditioning. This matters because a system that hard-codes a single update rule is making a stronger design commitment than coherence alone requires, and alternative rules like Jeffrey's kinematics are just as protected against inconsistent betting behavior.